A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil

Currently under peer-review process

A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil

Authors: Laís Picinini Freitas 1 , Danielle Andreza da Cruz Ferreira 2 , Raquel Martins Lana 3 , Daniel Cardoso Portela Câmara 1 , Tatiana P. Portella 1 , Marilia Sá Carvalho 1 , Ayrton Sena Gouveia 4 , Iasmim Ferreira de Almeida 4 , Eduardo Correa Araujo 5 , Luã Bida Vacaro 5 , Fabiana Ganem 5 , Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz 1 , Flávio Codeço Coelho 5 , Claudia Torres Codeço 1 , Luiz Max Carvalho 5 and Leonardo Soares Bastosa 1

1 Scientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

2 Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

3 Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain

4 Graduate Program in Epidemiology in Public Health, Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

5 Applied Mathematics School, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

Available as a pre-print at https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.06.12.25329525